Rep. Cline Introduces Bills to Reform the Congressional Budget Office’s Baseline Projections and Cost Estimates

Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Ben Cline (VA-06)

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, Congressman Ben Cline (R-VA) introduced the Cost Estimate Clarity Act and reintroduced the No Bias in the Baseline Act. Both pieces of legislation aim to empower Congress with the tools needed to make informed financial decisions and to eliminate the baseline bias in the budget process that favors higher spending. The Cost Estimate Clarity Act would require Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to disclose baseline distortions whenever they arise in its cost estimates. The No Bias in the Baseline Act—previously introduced in the 118th Congress—would revise the fiscal distortions embedded in the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) baseline projections.

“Members of Congress should be equipped with all the necessary resources to make informed financial decisions,” said Rep. Cline. “As faithful stewards of American’s tax dollars, the federal government should be supporting policies that ensure excessive spending isn’t left on autopilot. This legislation is critical to ensuring Congress has the ability and transparency needed to make budget deliberations with a commitment to prioritizing the needs of the American people.”

If enacted, these bills would:

Return Decision Making Back to Congress: Because these assumptions are baked into the baseline by law, CBO currently operates under the conclusion that Congress will continue increasing discretionary spending to match the Biden Administration’s inflationary agenda. That, along with the statutory presumptions that Congress will automatically continue any program over $50 million, use debt to bail out insolvent trust funds, and renew excise taxes at their current clip.

The responsibility to make these financial decisions is ultimately that of Congress, and CBO should be giving Members resources that help them to make informed decisions rather than having their primary product assume they choose the most expensive option as a starting point.

Remove Spending Biases from the Baseline: Budget negotiations can be a game of ranges. These bills would restore the baseline to reflect current law, so that future negotiations won’t begin at an already inflated starting point.

Realistically Score Legislation: Since the Current Law Baseline is used for scoring, it is important that there are no distortions that automatically price in expensive programs beyond their expiration date.

Background: CBO incorporates assumptions required by statute into its baseline in a way that deviates from what projections should be under current law. In fact, about 25 percent of spending in the baseline is just assumed:

Discretionary: $19 trillion in outlays for discretionary appropriations that have not yet been enacted;
Trust Fund Programs: Assumes $1.8 trillion in outlays for programs funded by trust funds that will be exhausted;
Mandatory Programs that Expire: $2.7 trillion in outlays for mandatory spending programs that expire under current law;
Expiring Trust Fund Taxes: Assumes $546 billion in revenues that expire under current law; and
Net Interest: $4 trillion in resulting interest costs from the aforementioned assumptions.

Read the full text of the Cost Estimate Clarity Act here.

Read the full text of the No Bias in the Baseline Act here.

These bills were drafted with the technical support and expertise of the Economic Policy Innovation Center.

Congressman Ben Cline represents the Sixth Congressional District of Virginia. He previously was an attorney in private practice and served both as an assistant prosecutor and a Member of the Virginia House of Delegates. Cline and his wife, Elizabeth, live in Botetourt County with their two children.

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